The outcome of the General Election

Whilst Labour won a large majority of 64% of the seats, they achieved it with just 34% of the people who voted supporting Labour.

And in their turn, only 60% of people bothered to vote, which means that (approx) 20% of the populous gave Labour their thumping majority.

Factors contributing to this included:

  • New voter ID rules.
  • Predictions of a large Labour majority, particularly during the last campaign week.
  • General disillusionment with politics.

Electoral System

The election showcased one of the most disproportionate relationships between seats won and vote shares:

  • Liberal Democrats won 71 seats with 12.2% of the vote.
  • Reform UK secured 4 seats with 14.3% of the vote.
  • Labour achieved a huge majority with over 200 additional seats on a similar vote share to 2019.

This disparity was due to targeted campaigns and vote efficiency:

  • The Lib Dems focused on Conservative-held seats where they were second in 2019, concentrating their vote share.
  • Labour improved vote efficiency by securing just enough votes in each seat, rather than accumulating large majorities in fewer seats.

The New Political Map

The election also reshaped the political landscape:

  • The “red wall” seats Labour lost to the Conservatives in 2019 became less of a focus.
  • Attention shifted to the “blue wall” seats in the south-west and eastwards to Oxfordshire, where the Lib Dems targeted affluent remain-voting areas.

Implications

  • The Lib Dems face a challenge in positioning themselves relative to other parties in the next parliament.
  • The Conservatives may need to navigate the threat from both Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

Overall, the 2024 general election underscored significant shifts in voter behavior, the effectiveness of targeted campaigns, and emerging new political battlegrounds.

 

See a BBC analysis of this here.

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