Whether the Prime Minister choses to resign or not after last nights ‘no confidence’ vote, it will leave him damaged. Theresa May didn’t survive a better percentage ‘win’, will Boris Jihnson?
History has shown that Tory leaders who were subject to such votes didn’t last long. Theresa May lasted 5 months; Iain Duncan Smith stepped down a week after his no confident vote.
John Major continued as leader and prime minister until losing the general election, almost two years after winning the 1995 leadership election.
Even Margaret Thatcher withdrew after not clearly winning a leadership election, forced by a ‘stalking horse’ candidate.
And will there be a cabinet re-shuffle; reshuffles have tended to be bad news for housing. The revolving door for Housing Ministers is well documented – 11 since 2010; 18 since 1997 – no wonder there is no consistent thinking in housing.
Added to this is the performance of the latest incumbent. Whenever we write to the Housing Minister, Stuart Andrews, we tend to get a reply from Eddie Hughes, and he’s the Minister for Rough Sleeping and Housing.
Whoever is the Prime Minister, and the Housing Minister between now and the election (January 2025, latest) will be mindful that the abolition of the Section 21 is a vote winner; more tenants vote than landlords. So don’t expect a reprieve on that