Have house prices fallen, or risen?

Research by easyMoney reveals that UK house prices are expected to climb on an annual basis, and that there has only been four times in 50 years that prices would have fallen.  The analysis is based on historic UK house price data from the Land Registry spanning the last five decades.

Despite concerns and predictions of significant property value reductions in 2023, Land Registry data (until October 2023) showed a 0.6% increase in house prices.  The latest Halifax House Price Index also indicated a 1.7% climb in house prices in 2023, based on mortgage approval data.

Bank of England data for November 2023 recorded a second consecutive increase in mortgage approvals, suggesting signs of a market revival.  The historical analysis by easyMoney indicates that annual house price drops in the UK have occurred only four times since 1974, with 46 years of positive growth.

The property market faced challenges in 2023, but easyMoney CEO Jason Ferrando expects the year to finish on a high, highlighting the strength and resilience of the UK housing market.  Notable years for house price drops were 1992 during the financial crisis (-5.8%) and 2008 due to the global banking crisis (-13.4%).

In contrast, 2002 is identified as the strongest year for property prices, with the average UK house price increasing by 28.8% between January and December.

Ferrando expresses surprise at predictions of a drop in house prices for 2024 by real estate firms JLL, Knight Frank, and Savills, considering the ongoing market rebound and positive economic indicators.  Jason Ferrando, CEO of easyMoney, emphasizes the resilience of the UK housing market and suggests that early pessimistic predictions are not uncommon, often revised as the property market proves them wrong.

The data tables and sources can be viewed online.

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